Orange County Probably Tops among the 33 Counties in Florida

As the US enters a new year skirting perilously close to recession, Metropolitan Orlando surpasses other areas of the state in the strength of its real-estate market, one of the state’s top private economists said Monday.

According to one of Florida’s top private economists Orange County is probably tops in Florida among the 33 counties studied because of a nice mix of "fast-growing industries, such as tourism, health care, education and defense manufacturing," Orlando economist Hank Fishkind said in an analysis for the Attorney’s Title Insurance Fund.

"It’s the strongest, in part, because of job creation," Fishkind said of Orange, the largest county in Metro Orlando, which also includes Seminole, Osceola and Lake. Polk County, one of the most popular areas for British buyers of Florida vacation and 2nd homes borders both Osceola and Lake County.

Although Mr. Fishkind expects the housing slump overall to continue, he notes that consumers looking for home prices in Florida, and particularly in Metro Orlando, to fall much more are not likely to be rewarded for their patience.

"Housing prices tend to be sticky," Fishkind said, falling much more slowly than they rise, unlike other "products" that often lose value fast to clear an oversupply. "People are reluctant, or unable, to cut prices on a house," he said. As a result, the excess inventory and flat pricing "will last for years."

Overall, Fishkind said, the state’s outlook is far stronger than that of much of the rest of the country. But the state also tends to lag the nation in some respects, he said, so while the U.S. should begin to see a slow economic rebound in the second half of 2008, Florida’s overall turnaround may not begin until 2009.

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